The British government's science advisor said,The probability of dying from coronavirus infection ranges from 0.5% to 1%.That's what I think.
this is,Not all infections are confirmed by testing.Therefore,Mortality rate of confirmed cases (as of March 23)According to WHO figures, the global total is 41 TP3T, and in the UK it's 51 TP3T.It is lower than )。
The method for determining who gets tested varies from country to country.Therefore,Comparing the number of cases or apparent mortality rates from country to country can also be misleading.It is possible.
Estimated mortality rate from COVID-19 infection
Furthermore, mortality rates are influenced by a variety of factors, including age, health status, and available care.
for example,Elderly people and those with underlying health conditions are more likely to die if they contract the coronavirus.One possible reason for the death of popular entertainer Ken Shimura is his advanced age.
Number of reported cases by prefecture in Japan (as of April 8, 2020)You can check the number of coronavirus deaths by prefecture there.
According to current estimates from Imperial College London, The mortality rate for those aged 80 and over is almost 10 times higher than average, while the mortality rate for those under 40 is much lower.In short,A virus that is extremely dangerous for the elderly.That's the point.If you have elderly family members or acquaintances, it is advisable to be even more careful than before.。
Professor Chris Whitty, the UK government's chief medical advisor, states that despite the higher mortality rate among the elderly, "the vast majority of older adults experience only mild to moderate symptoms."*Author's note: In short, the vast majority of the elderly will survive, but their mortality rate is significantly higher than that of younger people.）
just,Recent researchFrom this, it has been found that a significant portion of individuals infected with the coronavirus show no symptoms. Also,It is also known that those people may be able to infect other people with the virus. Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,25-50% of cases may be asymptomatic.It is estimated thatI did.
However, Professor Chris Whitty also said,Some young people received intensive care.He pointed out thatYoung people should not consider this a minor infection.That's what he's saying.
actual,The number of COVID-19 deaths worldwide has exceeded 90,000.This situation has become one that we cannot ignore.
Factors that increase the mortality rate from coronavirus
Age is not the only factor determining the risk of infectious diseases.。
The first large-scale analysis of more than 44,000 patients in China found that the mortality rate for patients with confirmed diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and respiratory illnesses was at least five times higher.(In other words, patients who are habitually ill or in poor health have a significantly higher mortality rate.)
All these factors interact with each other.We do not have a complete understanding of the risks for all types of people in all locations.
The mortality patterns of confirmed cases can reveal who is at greatest risk,It is not possible to know the exact risk for a single group.
It should also be noted that the mortality rate for confirmed cases does not represent the overall mortality rate.
Most cases of the virus are not counted because they tend to have mild symptoms and do not seek medical attention.
On March 17, Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific advisor, estimated that there were approximately 55,000 cases in the UK, but only slightly less than 2,000 cases had been confirmed.
Dividing the number of deaths by 2000 yields a much higher mortality rate than dividing it by 55,000.
This is one of the biggest reasons why the mortality rate among confirmed cases does not accurately reflect the actual mortality rate.is.
but,Conversely, the mortality rate can be underestimated by not taking into account people who are currently infected and are likely to eventually die.。
Why do death rates differ from country to country?
According to research by Imperial College, It depends on whether a country is good or bad at finding cases that are difficult to count.is.
The methods for testing for the virus, the testing capacity, and the rules for those who can be tested vary from country to country.Yes.All of these factors change over time.
The British government initially planned to increase testing to 10,000 days, aiming to reach 25,000 days within four weeks. Currently, testing is mainly limited to people in hospitals.
In Germany, more than 20,000 people can get tested every day, and even those with mild symptoms are being tested.
The mortality rate among confirmed cases in Germany (less than 5 percent) is among the lowest in Europe, but it is expected to rise as the composition of patients being tested changes.
The prognosis also depends on the available treatments and whether the medical institution can provide them.
In other words, it depends on the stage of the trend.
ifIf the healthcare system is overwhelmed with cases and intensive care units are unable to treat people who need ventilation, mortality rates will rise.
To prevent coronavirus to the greatest extent possible,Making effective use of our limited medical system is essential for Japan to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic.is.
Returnee and Contact Consultation Center
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare uses the following (1) and (2) as guidelines:Returnee and Contact Consultation CenterWe recommend consulting with [the relevant organization/organization].
(1) You have had cold symptoms or a fever of 37.5°C or higher for four days or more.
(This includes situations where you need to continue taking fever reducers.)
(2) There is severe fatigue or shortness of breath.
* Elderly individuals and those with underlying medical conditions should seek medical attention if they experience cold symptoms or a fever of 37.5°C or higher for about two days, or if they experience severe fatigue or shortness of breath.
Twitter accounts of experts
It is also important to obtain information from experts on the coronavirus as quickly as possible.
BelowTwitter accounts of expertsI will introduce some options, so please use them as a reference.
- Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Cluster Response Team account@ClusterJapan
- Account of a group of volunteer experts@senmonka21
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